Who is responsible for dating business cycles


Furthermore, trade was proven to be an important business cycle vector just for some countries, while for the completeness of the study additional variables should be also taken into consideration.

The significance of this study resides in the highlighting of the business cycle synchronization by means of the trade channel for the most influential economic powers of the world.

The point at which an expansion ends and a recession begins is called the peak of the business cycle. Eventually it starts upward again (at time Some economists prefer to break the expansion phase into two parts.

In December 2008, the Committee announced that a recession in the United States had begun in December 2007.

Interestingly, real GDP fell in the fourth quarter of 2007, grew in the first and second quarters of 2008, and shrank in the third quarter of 2008, so clearly the Committee was not using the two consecutive quarters of declining GDP rule-of-thumb.

The Great Recession (2007-2009), lasted longer than the average recession at nineteen months.

Economists have sought for centuries to explain the forces at work in a business cycle.

Annual growth rates for GDP and trade were filtered using the Hodrick-Prescott method and the results were correlated through the Pearson approach to obtain the degree of similarity between countries with respect to their economic fluctuations.

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